Donald Trump Overtakes Kamala Harris in Seven-Point Swing Nationally: Poll

Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a dramatic seven-point swing, according to a new national poll.
The poll, conducted by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8, gives Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, a 1.2 percent lead over Harris, the Democratic candidate, with 50.6 percent of the vote to her 46.4 percent.
It marks a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who was trailing Harris by 5.4 points, 47.3 percent to her 52.7 percent, in a poll conducted by ActiVote between September 11 and September 17. The former president has seen a 6.6-point increase in his lead in just three weeks.
Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
It is the first time Trump has led a national poll since September 22, when a survey conducted by Quinnipiac University put him 1 point ahead when third-party candidates were included, on 48 percent to Harris’ 47 percent. In a head-to-head matchup, the poll showed that the two candidates were tied on 48 percent each. The poll surveyed 1,728 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
Since September 22, polls have shown Harris leading Trump up to 7 points.
Meanwhile, the latest polls suggest the Harris campaign is still gaining traction with a month to go until the election.
The latest Cygnal poll, conducted between October 2 and 3, showed that Harris was leading Trump by 3.3 points, 50.3 percent to his 47 percent. That was up from an August 7 poll, which showed the vice president was only 0.6 points ahead of Trump, 47.6 percent to his 47 percent, and a September 5 poll, which showed she was 2.1 points ahead, 49 percent of the vote, while Trump had 46.9 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Morning Consult between October 4 and 6, put Harris 6 points ahead after previous polls showed that her lead was between 2 and 5 points.
According to aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris holds a 2.6-point national lead over Trump. In pollster Nate Silver’s tracker, she is 3 points ahead.
However, although Harris is leading the national popular vote, the election will ultimately depend on what happens in the seven swing states.
Both FiveThirtyEight and Silver’s tracker show that Harris leads by 1 to 2 points in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump maintains slight advantages in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
In Pennsylvania, they are tied, according to FiveThirtyEight. The state is crucial in securing victory in November. It has 19 Electoral College votes and has voted for the overall victor in 48 of 59 elections.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump would require 51. If Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would reach the electoral threshold needed for a win.
However, without Pennsylvania, Harris would not have enough votes to secure victory, even if she won Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District, which would gain her 32 electoral votes.
Although they are tied in Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast predicts Harris winning there, as well as in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, putting her in a position to claim the presidency. The polling aggregator predicts she will win 277 electoral votes overall.
Nonetheless, the close margins in these key battleground states indicate the race remains highly competitive, making it anybody’s to win. FiveThirtyEight recently noted that these narrow leads could result in the closest presidential contest in nearly 150 years.